The Most Favorite Premier League Leader for Christmas

English Premier League has finished game-week 11 on November 6^th with some surprise result influencing the change on the table. Overall, the top 6 team has the biggest chance to be the leader because their quality of the squad, manager, and club identity. According to their performances, the depth of current squad, and the future fixture of this 6 teams, who will be the most favorite to lead at the half of the season? 

Premier League Table after GW 11 (premierleague.com)

First, let’s discuss about the 6^th and 5^th rank of the league Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspurs. Hiring a high achievement manager, Jose Mourinho, gives the fans and the club owner a high expectancy to win trophies this season and return their glorious name. In the first three-match league, it looked promising because they won all game. Unfortunately, they lost to their “noisy” neighbor at home at game-week 4. The defeat at derby game affected their mentality as the result they only won 2 league games until match-day 11. Those bad results make them out of top 4 and now they have to survive harder to climb the table and get more win. It is not an easy job for The Red Devils because they also have to fight at some difficult matches next fixtures (Arsenal at home on game-week 12, Everton away GW 14 and Spurs at home GW 15), in EFL Cup and in European competition (Europa League) with two ‘must-win’ games left. It will divide their concentration and energy between domestic and European match.

Besides Manchester United, the same problem is faced by Tottenham Hotspurs. They have to share the focus in domestic league and European competition (Champions League) with two ‘must-win’ games left. The only difference between Spurs and United is Spurs still unbeaten in the league. But it doesn’t mean The Lily Whites are better, because they have more draw than a win (6 draws and 5 wins in PL) and make them left 3 points behind Arsenal, the 4^th rank on the table. They also have unfriendly fixtures until Christmas (Chelsea away at GW 14 and Man United away at GW 15). It seems difficult either United or Spurs to chase the current leader due to their busy fixtures in domestic and European game.

Moving on to 4^th rank, Arsenal, managed by Arsene Wenger. This season, the team has improved better especially in defensive side. Adding Shkrodan Mustafi make their defense stronger because they have duo strong center back plus an experience goal keeper. On the other hand, the arrival of Granit Xhaka in holding midfielder affects the balance between attack and defense in the midfield, because Xhaka not only good in interception and tackle, but also good in creating chance to help attackers like Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez. At the beginning of the season, after defeat against Liverpool at home at first match in the league, they looked very strong with few wins in a row. They also show a very good performance in EFL Cup (qualified to quarter final) and Champions League (1^st on the group until match-day 4). 

Unluckily, the old problem, injury, start to haunting The Gunners back. The important players started to have injury one by one since the end of October, beginning from Theo Walcott, then Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil at November international break. The high intensity of match at domestic match and European competition, following the match with national team, are the big factor of that injury. The injury probably make Wenger headache, because November fixture will be difficult for Arsenal. After hosting their rival Spurs, they will face Manchester United away at GW 12. The next three days they will play a decisive match to be group leader at Champions League against PSG. They also have a quarter final EFL Cup clash versus Southampton. On the following month, December, they will play against Manchester City before Christmas. Due to injury problem and busy schedule, they have small chance to overtake first position on the table. Arsenal’s best chance might stand at 2^nd or 3^rd on the table at Christmas.

Above Arsenal, there is Manchester City on 3^rd position. Surprisingly, a draw result at home against Middlesbrough influence the change on the table because Man City had to go down from top of the table. That draw result came after having a very good period, win 4-0 against West Brom and unforgettable 3-1 win versus the best team in the world, FC Barcelona, at Champions League. The minor result against Boro reflected that busy fixtures can influence a team performance even though The Citizens have world class players and one of best manager in the world, Pep Guardiola. On the next fixtures, they still have to play two Champions League games, although they just need a win to qualify to 16 round. Meanwhile, in Premier League, they will face some difficult matches, Chelsea at home on GW 14, Arsenal at home on GW 17, and Liverpool at home after boxing day.  

Fortunately, some injury players such as Kevin De Bruyne and Gundongan have recovered and back to the team, although Kompany and their first-choice Goalkeeper, Claudio Bravo have a new injury. But Kompany absence is not a big problem because John Stones and Otamendi has played well in the central defender. If Man City can get a win in Champions League and manage the players fatigue by rotating them, it is not possible they can win the next league matches and then climb to 2^nd place or even back to first position.

At second place, there is a team who’s been back to brilliant performance. Chelsea. Two defeats in a row against Liverpool and Arsenal has woken them up to top performance, especially the defeats made Antonio Conte change the formation to 3-4-3 (3-4-2-1). New formation impacts to the performance of whole team, as the result they scored 16 goals and conceded 0 goal in 5 matches, which some of opponents are tough teams (Leicester, Manchester United, Southampton, and Everton). The advantage of The Blues is they don’t play in Europe this season, which means they only focus on domestic matches (particularly Premier League, because they’ve knocked out by West Ham at EFL Cup). Conte should use that advantage to play against big team in their next fixture, Spurs at GW 13 and Manchester City at GW 14. 

Unfortunately, The Blues still have a problem in their depth of the squad. The style of play of bench players have not equal the standard of starting line-up players in 3-4-3 formation. It proved at EFL Cup defeat against West Ham, with most of starting xi are the bench players. With Diego Costa (PL topscorer) is only 1 yellow card away to miss next match, meanwhile Hazard, Kante, David Luiz, Moses, and Alonso have no equal back up, Antonio Conte must pray that his players stay away from injury and card accumulation. If Chelsea line-up squad will be fine until half of the season, they will have a big chance to overtake the top of the table.

Lastly, Liverpool is on top of the table after the last time they’ve been there was in May 2014. Eight wins, two draws, and a lost in ten matches with 30 goals scored brought Liverpool to the top of Premier League table. Had away win against Arsenal and Chelsea along with a draw at White Hart Lane and old rival Man United at home, they will only have Merseyside Derby clash at GW 17 and home game against Man City on boxing day as their most difficult match. The advantage of the fixtures could bring them stay at 1^st place on Christmas day. The strength of Liverpool this season is their attacking play, leading by deadly trio Phillipe Coutinho, Roberto Firmino, and Sadio Mane, whose scored half of the team goals. The attacking play displayed by Jurgen Klopp’s army is also supported by ‘Gegenpressing’ when they lost the ball to win it back even to do counter attack. As the result, they scored 30 goals in 11 matches. 

Despite having the best goal score in the league, The Reds also have a problem in their defense with 14 goals conceded. That number is the worst in compare to the other top 6 team. The new central defender like Matip and Klavan, in addition with new goalkeeper Loris Karius, looked difficult to adapt in Premier League particularly in physical game. That defensive problem might be dangerous for them in a tight match like derby Merseyside. Fortunately, besides GW 17 and 19, they should win another match easily on their next fixture. Furthermore, same as Chelsea, Liverpool also don’t have European competition this season. The EFL Cup quarter final match should not influence their focus and energy because their bench players has been show their good performance in EFL Cup previous round.

To conclude, Liverpool and Chelsea will be the most favorite team to lead the Premier League table on Christmas day due to their league fixture and their absence in European competition. In particular, Liverpool is the most favorite one because of their squad's depth. But the other team fans should not be worried too much, because football is not a mathematic, and Premier League is become famous by the drama until the end of the season, so everything can happen in the future.

Manchester City Must Be Effective to Win the Clash against Barcelona

Manchester City has a chance to revenge on their heavy lost at Camp Nou on Tuesday Night (GMT). Despite had poor run in 6 matches without win, a big win on Premier League can be the modal to face five times UCL winner. Here are some factors to City to get the best result at home.

Guardiola told the media after League Cup match that he was not panic to the situation of 6 winless matches. Pep finally showed his word at West Brom game when he got a big win. Ex Barca manager started to find solution by playing Ilkay Gundongan, a smart midfielder to strengthen City’s midfield. Although Gundongan has played before, he looked more comfortable and started to adapt well with Pep’s style on West Brom game. He helped Fernandinho as defensive midfielder as well as created chance for attackers even he scored goal. His consistency can help Man City to win the midfield area on the game.

The strength midfield area is one of the factor for City playing possession football. In case of Barcelona visits, it can be easier to City to win the midfield and play their style because Barca’s maestro, Anders Iniesta, will not play because of injury. But, attacking football means deadly finisher needed, fortunately Aguero has already found his sharpness again on the last game. He can be a big solution for City to score the goal first on Barcelona game. In addition, Barcelona cannot play their best defender in cause of Pique and Jordy Alba’s absence. The Citizen attackers must take advantage to threaten the Catalan’s defense. In this situation, the home side has the biggest chance to score goals.

Man City may win the midfield area and create some chance, but they have to convert every clear opportunity to be a goal. If they are unable to score the goal, Barcelona can attack quickly moreover they have a fantastic trio, MSN. It is not possible when Barca win the ball, they will provide the trio to create chance and threaten City. Furthermore, the trio especially Messi is in good form. Messi can score the goal or create opportunity to Suarez or Neymar. In addition, the Azulgrana has much experience in European competition in compare to the Citizens. The lack of experience of the home side can be a big advantage to win the game for Barca.

            

            However, a win for Man City is a must to hold their position on the table. Monchengladbach can overtake their place on the table if they draw or lose. Finally, to get the victory, Man City must show their sharpness in front of opponent’s goal and effectiveness of their play because Barca can punish them when they cannot score goal.