English Premier League has finished game-week 11 on November
6th with some surprise result influencing the change on the table.
Overall, the top 6 team has the biggest chance to be the leader because their
quality of the squad, manager, and club identity. According to their
performances, the depth of current squad, and the future fixture of this 6
teams, who will be the most favorite to lead at the half of the season?
First, let’s discuss about the 6th and 5th
rank of the league Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspurs. Hiring a high achievement
manager, Jose Mourinho, gives the fans and the club owner a high expectancy to
win trophies this season and return their glorious name. In the first
three-match league, it looked promising because they won all game.
Unfortunately, they lost to their “noisy” neighbor at home at game-week 4. The
defeat at derby game affected their mentality as the result they only won 2
league games until match-day 11. Those bad results make them out of top 4 and
now they have to survive harder to climb the table and get more win. It is not
an easy job for The Red Devils because they also have to fight at some
difficult matches next fixtures (Arsenal at home on game-week 12, Everton away
GW 14 and Spurs at home GW 15), in EFL Cup and in European competition (Europa
League) with two ‘must-win’ games left. It will divide their concentration and
energy between domestic and European match.
Besides Manchester United, the same problem is faced by
Tottenham Hotspurs. They have to share the focus in domestic league and
European competition (Champions League) with two ‘must-win’ games left. The
only difference between Spurs and United is Spurs still unbeaten in the league.
But it doesn’t mean The Lily Whites are better, because they have more draw
than a win (6 draws and 5 wins in PL) and make them left 3 points behind
Arsenal, the 4th rank on the table. They also have unfriendly
fixtures until Christmas (Chelsea away at GW 14 and Man United away at GW 15). It
seems difficult either United or Spurs to chase the current leader due to their
busy fixtures in domestic and European game.
Moving on to 4th rank, Arsenal, managed by Arsene
Wenger. This season, the team has improved better especially in defensive side.
Adding Shkrodan Mustafi make their defense stronger because they have duo
strong center back plus an experience goal keeper. On the other hand, the
arrival of Granit Xhaka in holding midfielder affects the balance between
attack and defense in the midfield, because Xhaka not only good in interception
and tackle, but also good in creating chance to help attackers like Mesut Ozil
and Alexis Sanchez. At the beginning of the season, after defeat against
Liverpool at home at first match in the league, they looked very strong with
few wins in a row. They also show a very good performance in EFL Cup (qualified
to quarter final) and Champions League (1st on the group until
match-day 4).
Unluckily, the old problem, injury, start to haunting The Gunners
back. The important players started to have injury one by one since the end of
October, beginning from Theo Walcott, then Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil at
November international break. The high intensity of match at domestic match and
European competition, following the match with national team, are the big
factor of that injury. The injury probably make Wenger headache, because
November fixture will be difficult for Arsenal. After hosting their rival
Spurs, they will face Manchester United away at GW 12. The next three days they
will play a decisive match to be group leader at Champions League against PSG.
They also have a quarter final EFL Cup clash versus Southampton. On the
following month, December, they will play against Manchester City before
Christmas. Due to injury problem and busy schedule, they have small chance to
overtake first position on the table. Arsenal’s best chance might stand at 2nd
or 3rd on the table at Christmas.
Above Arsenal, there is Manchester City on 3rd
position. Surprisingly, a draw result at home against Middlesbrough influence
the change on the table because Man City had to go down from top of the table.
That draw result came after having a very good period, win 4-0 against West
Brom and unforgettable 3-1 win versus the best team in the world, FC Barcelona,
at Champions League. The minor result against Boro reflected that busy fixtures
can influence a team performance even though The Citizens have world class
players and one of best manager in the world, Pep Guardiola. On the next
fixtures, they still have to play two Champions League games, although they
just need a win to qualify to 16 round. Meanwhile, in Premier
League, they will face some difficult matches, Chelsea at home on GW 14,
Arsenal at home on GW 17, and Liverpool at home after boxing day.
Fortunately, some injury players such as Kevin
De Bruyne and Gundongan have recovered and back to the team, although Kompany
and their first-choice Goalkeeper, Claudio Bravo have a new injury. But Kompany
absence is not a big problem because John Stones and Otamendi has played well
in the central defender. If Man City can get a win in Champions League and
manage the players fatigue by rotating them, it is not possible they can win
the next league matches and then climb to 2nd place or even back to
first position.
At second place, there is a team who’s been back to
brilliant performance. Chelsea. Two defeats in a row against Liverpool and
Arsenal has woken them up to top performance, especially the defeats made Antonio
Conte change the formation to 3-4-3 (3-4-2-1). New formation impacts to the
performance of whole team, as the result they scored 16 goals and conceded 0
goal in 5 matches, which some of opponents are tough teams (Leicester,
Manchester United, Southampton, and Everton). The advantage of The Blues is
they don’t play in Europe this season, which means they only focus on domestic
matches (particularly Premier League, because they’ve knocked out by West Ham
at EFL Cup). Conte should use that advantage to play against big team in their
next fixture, Spurs at GW 13 and Manchester City at GW 14.
Unfortunately, The
Blues still have a problem in their depth of the squad. The style of play of
bench players have not equal the standard of starting line-up players in 3-4-3
formation. It proved at EFL Cup defeat against West Ham, with most of starting
xi are the bench players. With Diego Costa (PL topscorer) is only 1 yellow card
away to miss next match, meanwhile Hazard, Kante, David Luiz, Moses, and Alonso
have no equal back up, Antonio Conte must pray that his players stay away from
injury and card accumulation. If Chelsea line-up squad will be fine until half
of the season, they will have a big chance to overtake the top of the table.
Lastly, Liverpool is on top of the table after the last time
they’ve been there was in May 2014. Eight wins, two draws, and a lost in ten
matches with 30 goals scored brought Liverpool to the top of Premier League
table. Had away win against Arsenal and Chelsea along with a draw at White Hart
Lane and old rival Man United at home, they will only have Merseyside Derby
clash at GW 17 and home game against Man City on boxing day as their most
difficult match. The advantage of the fixtures could bring them stay at 1st
place on Christmas day. The strength of Liverpool this season is their
attacking play, leading by deadly trio Phillipe Coutinho, Roberto Firmino, and
Sadio Mane, whose scored half of the team goals. The attacking play displayed
by Jurgen Klopp’s army is also supported by ‘Gegenpressing’ when they lost the ball to win it back even to do
counter attack. As the result, they scored 30 goals in 11 matches.
Despite
having the best goal score in the league, The Reds also have a problem in their
defense with 14 goals conceded. That number is the worst in compare to the
other top 6 team. The new central defender like Matip and Klavan, in addition
with new goalkeeper Loris Karius, looked difficult to adapt in Premier League particularly in physical game. That defensive problem might be dangerous for them in a tight
match like derby Merseyside. Fortunately, besides GW 17 and 19, they should win
another match easily on their next fixture. Furthermore, same as Chelsea,
Liverpool also don’t have European competition this season. The EFL Cup quarter
final match should not influence their focus and energy because their bench
players has been show their good performance in EFL Cup previous round.
To
conclude, Liverpool and Chelsea will be the most favorite team to lead the
Premier League table on Christmas day due to their league fixture and their absence in
European competition. In particular, Liverpool is the most favorite one because
of their squad's depth. But the other team fans should not be worried too much,
because football is not a mathematic, and Premier League is become famous by the drama
until the end of the season, so everything can happen in the future.