The Most Favorite Premier League Leader for Christmas

English Premier League has finished game-week 11 on November 6^th with some surprise result influencing the change on the table. Overall, the top 6 team has the biggest chance to be the leader because their quality of the squad, manager, and club identity. According to their performances, the depth of current squad, and the future fixture of this 6 teams, who will be the most favorite to lead at the half of the season? 

Premier League Table after GW 11 (premierleague.com)

First, let’s discuss about the 6^th and 5^th rank of the league Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspurs. Hiring a high achievement manager, Jose Mourinho, gives the fans and the club owner a high expectancy to win trophies this season and return their glorious name. In the first three-match league, it looked promising because they won all game. Unfortunately, they lost to their “noisy” neighbor at home at game-week 4. The defeat at derby game affected their mentality as the result they only won 2 league games until match-day 11. Those bad results make them out of top 4 and now they have to survive harder to climb the table and get more win. It is not an easy job for The Red Devils because they also have to fight at some difficult matches next fixtures (Arsenal at home on game-week 12, Everton away GW 14 and Spurs at home GW 15), in EFL Cup and in European competition (Europa League) with two ‘must-win’ games left. It will divide their concentration and energy between domestic and European match.

Besides Manchester United, the same problem is faced by Tottenham Hotspurs. They have to share the focus in domestic league and European competition (Champions League) with two ‘must-win’ games left. The only difference between Spurs and United is Spurs still unbeaten in the league. But it doesn’t mean The Lily Whites are better, because they have more draw than a win (6 draws and 5 wins in PL) and make them left 3 points behind Arsenal, the 4^th rank on the table. They also have unfriendly fixtures until Christmas (Chelsea away at GW 14 and Man United away at GW 15). It seems difficult either United or Spurs to chase the current leader due to their busy fixtures in domestic and European game.

Moving on to 4^th rank, Arsenal, managed by Arsene Wenger. This season, the team has improved better especially in defensive side. Adding Shkrodan Mustafi make their defense stronger because they have duo strong center back plus an experience goal keeper. On the other hand, the arrival of Granit Xhaka in holding midfielder affects the balance between attack and defense in the midfield, because Xhaka not only good in interception and tackle, but also good in creating chance to help attackers like Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez. At the beginning of the season, after defeat against Liverpool at home at first match in the league, they looked very strong with few wins in a row. They also show a very good performance in EFL Cup (qualified to quarter final) and Champions League (1^st on the group until match-day 4). 

Unluckily, the old problem, injury, start to haunting The Gunners back. The important players started to have injury one by one since the end of October, beginning from Theo Walcott, then Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil at November international break. The high intensity of match at domestic match and European competition, following the match with national team, are the big factor of that injury. The injury probably make Wenger headache, because November fixture will be difficult for Arsenal. After hosting their rival Spurs, they will face Manchester United away at GW 12. The next three days they will play a decisive match to be group leader at Champions League against PSG. They also have a quarter final EFL Cup clash versus Southampton. On the following month, December, they will play against Manchester City before Christmas. Due to injury problem and busy schedule, they have small chance to overtake first position on the table. Arsenal’s best chance might stand at 2^nd or 3^rd on the table at Christmas.

Above Arsenal, there is Manchester City on 3^rd position. Surprisingly, a draw result at home against Middlesbrough influence the change on the table because Man City had to go down from top of the table. That draw result came after having a very good period, win 4-0 against West Brom and unforgettable 3-1 win versus the best team in the world, FC Barcelona, at Champions League. The minor result against Boro reflected that busy fixtures can influence a team performance even though The Citizens have world class players and one of best manager in the world, Pep Guardiola. On the next fixtures, they still have to play two Champions League games, although they just need a win to qualify to 16 round. Meanwhile, in Premier League, they will face some difficult matches, Chelsea at home on GW 14, Arsenal at home on GW 17, and Liverpool at home after boxing day.  

Fortunately, some injury players such as Kevin De Bruyne and Gundongan have recovered and back to the team, although Kompany and their first-choice Goalkeeper, Claudio Bravo have a new injury. But Kompany absence is not a big problem because John Stones and Otamendi has played well in the central defender. If Man City can get a win in Champions League and manage the players fatigue by rotating them, it is not possible they can win the next league matches and then climb to 2^nd place or even back to first position.

At second place, there is a team who’s been back to brilliant performance. Chelsea. Two defeats in a row against Liverpool and Arsenal has woken them up to top performance, especially the defeats made Antonio Conte change the formation to 3-4-3 (3-4-2-1). New formation impacts to the performance of whole team, as the result they scored 16 goals and conceded 0 goal in 5 matches, which some of opponents are tough teams (Leicester, Manchester United, Southampton, and Everton). The advantage of The Blues is they don’t play in Europe this season, which means they only focus on domestic matches (particularly Premier League, because they’ve knocked out by West Ham at EFL Cup). Conte should use that advantage to play against big team in their next fixture, Spurs at GW 13 and Manchester City at GW 14. 

Unfortunately, The Blues still have a problem in their depth of the squad. The style of play of bench players have not equal the standard of starting line-up players in 3-4-3 formation. It proved at EFL Cup defeat against West Ham, with most of starting xi are the bench players. With Diego Costa (PL topscorer) is only 1 yellow card away to miss next match, meanwhile Hazard, Kante, David Luiz, Moses, and Alonso have no equal back up, Antonio Conte must pray that his players stay away from injury and card accumulation. If Chelsea line-up squad will be fine until half of the season, they will have a big chance to overtake the top of the table.

Lastly, Liverpool is on top of the table after the last time they’ve been there was in May 2014. Eight wins, two draws, and a lost in ten matches with 30 goals scored brought Liverpool to the top of Premier League table. Had away win against Arsenal and Chelsea along with a draw at White Hart Lane and old rival Man United at home, they will only have Merseyside Derby clash at GW 17 and home game against Man City on boxing day as their most difficult match. The advantage of the fixtures could bring them stay at 1^st place on Christmas day. The strength of Liverpool this season is their attacking play, leading by deadly trio Phillipe Coutinho, Roberto Firmino, and Sadio Mane, whose scored half of the team goals. The attacking play displayed by Jurgen Klopp’s army is also supported by ‘Gegenpressing’ when they lost the ball to win it back even to do counter attack. As the result, they scored 30 goals in 11 matches. 

Despite having the best goal score in the league, The Reds also have a problem in their defense with 14 goals conceded. That number is the worst in compare to the other top 6 team. The new central defender like Matip and Klavan, in addition with new goalkeeper Loris Karius, looked difficult to adapt in Premier League particularly in physical game. That defensive problem might be dangerous for them in a tight match like derby Merseyside. Fortunately, besides GW 17 and 19, they should win another match easily on their next fixture. Furthermore, same as Chelsea, Liverpool also don’t have European competition this season. The EFL Cup quarter final match should not influence their focus and energy because their bench players has been show their good performance in EFL Cup previous round.

To conclude, Liverpool and Chelsea will be the most favorite team to lead the Premier League table on Christmas day due to their league fixture and their absence in European competition. In particular, Liverpool is the most favorite one because of their squad's depth. But the other team fans should not be worried too much, because football is not a mathematic, and Premier League is become famous by the drama until the end of the season, so everything can happen in the future.

Manchester City Must Be Effective to Win the Clash against Barcelona

Manchester City has a chance to revenge on their heavy lost at Camp Nou on Tuesday Night (GMT). Despite had poor run in 6 matches without win, a big win on Premier League can be the modal to face five times UCL winner. Here are some factors to City to get the best result at home.

Guardiola told the media after League Cup match that he was not panic to the situation of 6 winless matches. Pep finally showed his word at West Brom game when he got a big win. Ex Barca manager started to find solution by playing Ilkay Gundongan, a smart midfielder to strengthen City’s midfield. Although Gundongan has played before, he looked more comfortable and started to adapt well with Pep’s style on West Brom game. He helped Fernandinho as defensive midfielder as well as created chance for attackers even he scored goal. His consistency can help Man City to win the midfield area on the game.

The strength midfield area is one of the factor for City playing possession football. In case of Barcelona visits, it can be easier to City to win the midfield and play their style because Barca’s maestro, Anders Iniesta, will not play because of injury. But, attacking football means deadly finisher needed, fortunately Aguero has already found his sharpness again on the last game. He can be a big solution for City to score the goal first on Barcelona game. In addition, Barcelona cannot play their best defender in cause of Pique and Jordy Alba’s absence. The Citizen attackers must take advantage to threaten the Catalan’s defense. In this situation, the home side has the biggest chance to score goals.

Man City may win the midfield area and create some chance, but they have to convert every clear opportunity to be a goal. If they are unable to score the goal, Barcelona can attack quickly moreover they have a fantastic trio, MSN. It is not possible when Barca win the ball, they will provide the trio to create chance and threaten City. Furthermore, the trio especially Messi is in good form. Messi can score the goal or create opportunity to Suarez or Neymar. In addition, the Azulgrana has much experience in European competition in compare to the Citizens. The lack of experience of the home side can be a big advantage to win the game for Barca.

            

            However, a win for Man City is a must to hold their position on the table. Monchengladbach can overtake their place on the table if they draw or lose. Finally, to get the victory, Man City must show their sharpness in front of opponent’s goal and effectiveness of their play because Barca can punish them when they cannot score goal.

Conte’s Game Plan Worked Well at St. Marry

Chelsea showed another elegant performance on away game versus Southampton. It means 4^th consecetive win and 4^th consecutive cleansheet in the league for them since they use 3-4-3. The Blues displayed solid defense and dangerous counter attack to get a win at St. Marry.

Players celebrated Costa's goal twitter.com/chelseafc

Antonio Conte didn’t change the winning team against Manchester United to start the game, meanwhile Southampton only changed the leftback from McQueen into the former Blues who played on UCL final victory, Ryan Bertrand. The away team played the ball well, scored another quick goal in 6 minutes by Hazard. The goal also created by a nice build up attack from behind and exploited both wing quickly by Chelsea. Total the West London team has scored three goals in the first ten minutes three times in row. Midway first half, Soton started to play the ball and tried to create a chance. But Chelsea showed an elegant ‘Cattenacio’ in defense, just like Italian team usually do. Soton got trapped every time they play the ball near the penalty box, then Conte’s side launched a quick counter attack lead by trio attackers when they got the ball back, one of the successful counter was Diego costa’s chance, whose shot been parried away by Forster’s leg. The home side only had Tadic’s free kick as their best chance to score, but Courtois can handle it.

On second half, things didn’t change for both side. The home side’s player flowed well in their movement, but they still found difficult to have attempt on target. In contrast, by a quick short set piece, the away side scored by Costa’s beautiful long range effort. His eight goal of the season made Chelsea play comfortable at the rest of the game. Southampton suffered at the game, couldn’t create any clear chance to score and got worried every time Chelsea won the ball back. Final result is 2-0 win for away side.

Once again, the Blues’ players showed solid performance. Trio defenders worked well to defend Southampton attackers. Duo wingbacks covered their area well defensively and offensively. The pairing midfielder showed compact play to win the ball back and help the attackers. The last, trio attackers were very sharp and ‘ dangerous. Hazard played fantastic performance when launched a quick counter, dribbled to cut home side defense, scored a goal, created chances, and give assist to Costa. The target man displayed sharp and decorous performance to avoid another yellow card. Pedro could launch counter on the other side and help Moses in defense sometime. Meanwhile Courtois had a quite night as the result of ‘Cattenacio’. 

Overall Chelsea had a very good game at St. Marry. Everton will be their next opponent and it will be another tough match for Conte and his players. If they show their consistency, they will have the best chance to win the game and stay close to the leader on the table.

Chelsea’s Renaissance Overview

Chelsea’s renaissance has been impressed the fans and made them back to the track on the table. Despite being lost in EFL Cup with some key players did not start from first half, three wins in a row in Premier League shows their revival. One of the key is formation changes into 3-4-3, but has it been the most suitable one?

The man behind the renaissance chelseafc.com

After Chelsea suffered a draw at Swansea and two losts in a row against Liverpool and heavy defeat by Arsenal, Antonio Conte started to change the formation of Chelsea into 3-4-3. Actually, it has been applied on second half match against Arsenal when Chelsea left 0-3 at first half. But it has been too late, Arsenal has already played more defensive and played with quick counter attack caused Chelsea had been difficult to attack the North Londoners.

Figure 1. Chelsea line up v Arsenal (chelseafc.com)

At second half, Cesar Azpilicueta who played at Left Back before, rotated into Right Wing Back. Meanwhile, Marcos Alonso subbed for Cesc Fabregas to play at Left Wing Back. David Luiz, Gary Cahill, and Ivanovic were the back three, Kante and Matic were the pairing central midfielder, plus Hazard as Left Wing Forward, Willian as Right Wing Forward, and Diego Costa as the striker. To play against defensive Arsenal with left by 3 goals, played with only 3 natural attacking players looked difficult for the Blues side. The final result of the game wasn’t change and they had just a little improve in defense with new formation. Whocored.com rated the Blues’ players very poor on that game.

Figure 2. Rating by whoscored.com

Conte told the media on the postgame interview that his team needs to work harder to improve. He and his squad had 6 days to train and improve to face Hull City. Finallly, Conte put his favourite back-three formation with 3-4-3 from the start on the game against Hull, but there are some changes with players. Azpilicueta was on right center back at back three, Victor Moses played as a right wing back.

Figure 3. Chelsea's line-up v Hull by chelseafc.com

At first half, the team still had difficulties to play with the system. Commentators, pundits, and fans still confused the system could work on Chelsea players. But players improved better than Arsenal game actually. As the second half played, Chelsea were the better team with compact defense and dangerous attack. They finally could score two goals by Willian and Diego Costa with process from very good team work especially trio attackers, Willian, Costa, and Hazard. Duo central midfielder looked too tough for opponents’ midfielder meanwhile the wingbacks played very well both in defense and attack. Chelsea with new formation won, but critics still came because they only played against bottom table team.

Figure 4. Players rating by whoscored.com

There were international matches after Hull’s game. It means Conte had the best chances to improve and make his new system work better even there were some big names called by their nation. Leicester City was their next opponent. On the game, Conte put his best players to play on 3-4-3 formation, only made a change from Hull’s game with Pedro to replace Willian who unavailabled for the game. Meanwhile the defending champion kept Riyad Mahrez and Slimani off the pitch. Claudio Ranieri looked to keep his best players fit after had a late international matches and prepared to European game on Tuesday.

The former champion was bossing the game, gave the defending champion no chances to build up their play. The first half ended with 2-0 to Chelsea. At second half, Leciester pressed the home side better, created chances, made David Luiz almost scored to own net, but it was the only dangerous chances they had because they couldn’t create any shot on target on that game. Chelsea played good defense and patience on counter, as the result they could score another goal by a good team work from Victor Moses and the youngster Chalobah. Final result showed Chelsea played a perfect game. 

Figure 5. Chelsea v Leicester players' rating by whoscored.com

The next matchday was a bigmatch at home, they played against Manchester United whose managed by Chelsea’s succesfull manager Jose Mourinho. It was an emotional prematch for Jose, Chelsea, and players, but they showed their professional both on the interview and on the pitch. At prematch, every pundits believed the former boss will play more defensive and target ‘not-to-lose’ the match.

The game started and Chelsea shocked everybody in stadium even in front of the tv, scored with only 30 seconds after kick off without opponent’s players had a chance to touch the ball. The Blues’ players showed a great passion at that game, chasing opponents’ players when they have the ball to win the ball back, run everywhere to cover the pitch well, and attacked dangerously. They just like want to show their former boss that bad performance at last season was not players mistakes. The play that Blues show made United players easily to create blunders. First goal happened because of Smalling and Blind miscommunication, in addition De Gea’s sloppy decision to run out of the 16 yards box. As Chelsea continued to play impressive, they could score the second goal, also with poor defending from set-piece played by United’s defense.

At second half, Mourinho played more attacking and possession football. He decided to sub Fellaini off to Juan Mata, the former Chelsea’s fans favourite players in two years, who had been sold to United in 2014 by him. United tried to created dangerous chance, but the home side defense played tremendous game, even Courtois made some saves to deny United from scoring. Once the Blues had a chance to attack, the Reds Devils having difficulties to defense because the speed of the Blues’ attackers. As the result, Conte’s army could add two goals in contrast Mourinho’s army failed to score. Final score 4-0 represented at the Bridge. It has been the most impressive performance by the Blues in 2016 and the worst defeat of Mourinho at Premier League. The result convinced the pundits that Chelsea is back on title challenge track. 

Figure 6. Chelsea-Man United players' rated by whoscored.com

Unfortunately, after having delighted result on Sunday, Chelsea couldn’t play the same way at EFL Cup against West Ham. Conte started with some youngster such as Chalobah at midfielder and Aina at wingback, put Azpilicueta at the other side of wingback, started John Terry back after long injury. He changed trio attackers into Oscar, Batshuayi, and Willian. He only left Cahill, Luiz, and Kante at their best post, meanwhile Begovic played in front of the goal. The change showed the imperfection of 3-4-3. The two wingback couldn’t cover well in offense and devense, meanwhile new trio attacking failed to work well. It impacts Kante in midfield to work harder to create a chance. New trio defender also looked unconvinced, as the result Chelsea conceded two goals on the game. The first goal happened because John Terry’s mistake in marking Kouyate, and the second goal to West Ham showed a lack of concentration level by The Blues at the start of second half. Chelsea responded very late, scored one goal at last minute by Cahill. West Ham goes to next round, Chelsea stopped the journey at the competition.

Chelsea may have a great period by winning the last three matches in Premier League. They played very well with 3-4-3, but the show in London Olympic Stadium described their weakness in applying 3-4-3, especially when their best wingbacks is off the pitch. Playing with back-three formation means the team needs two wingbacks who can cover both defense and offense very good. As they only have Victor Moses and Marcos Alonso to play as qualified wingbacks, it will be a warning to Conte when one of them can’t play because of card accumulation or injury.

The formation also shows a big dependence on dynamic midfielder like Kante and duo Hazard-Costa as attackers. Batshuayi as Costa’s back up yet to show his quality as a hungry striker. Batshuayi needs to find his sharpness quickly because Costa has already collected four yellow cards, another yellow card means he has to miss the next game. The Belgian striker must show his quality to cover Costa’s absence because the Blues has a tough fixture until gameweek 14.

Although there are points to improve, Conte has a positive news because some of players have been recovered from injured. Fabregas started to have a light training. He can be a solution when the Blues get stuck to score a goal and need a creative player to create a chance. Zouma who had a terrified injury since beginning of 2016, has been played on Chelsea Development Squad. Senior defenders like John Terry and Ivanovic have been also involved in training, indeed Terry started at West Ham game. That players can give Conte many options to his gameplan. Meanwhile to overcame the backup for wingback position, Conte can wait until January transfer window. Maybe he can find an experience wingback on the market and make his team stronger in the second half of the season.

So far, the new formation has showed very good impact for the Blues. But a lost in EFL proved they are still not perfect. The real test for Chelsea’s consistency started on matchday 9 until matchday 14, then all of us can decide whether the 3-4-3 has been suitable for the West London side or not.